Feinberg Forecast: First Look at the Post-Noms Emmys Landscape

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PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and publicity campaigns, results of awards that precede the Emmys and the history of the Emmys itself.

*BEST DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
The Crown (Netflix)
Pose (FX)
The Mandalorian (Disney+)
Lovecraft Country (HBO)
This Is Us (NBC)
Bridgerton (Netflix)
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
The Boys (Prime Video)

*BEST COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
Hacks (HBO Max)
The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
Cobra Kai (Netflix)
Black-ish
(ABC)
Pen15 (Hulu)
Emily in Paris (Netflix)

*BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
WandaVision (Disney+)
Mare of Easttown (HBO)
The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)
The Underground Railroad (Amazon)
I May Destroy You (HBO)

*BEST VARIETY TALK SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
Conan (TBS) — podcast (Conan O’Brien)
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast (Stephen Colbert)
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central) — podcast (Trevor Noah)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)

*BEST VARIETY SKETCH SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Saturday Night Live (NBC) — podcast (Lorne Michaels)
A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO) — podcast (Robin Thede)

*BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED)*

Projected Order of Finish
Hamilton (Disney+) — podcast (Lin-Manuel Miranda)
Bo Burnham: Inside
(Netflix) — podcast (Bo Burnham)
8:46 – Dave Chappelle (Netflix)
David Byrne’s American Utopia (HBO)
Friends: The Reunion (HBO Max)
A West Wing Special to Benefit When We All Vote (HBO Max)

*BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)*

Projected Order of Finish
The 63rd Annual Grammy Awards (CBS)
The Pepsi Super Bowl LV Halftime Show Starring The Weeknd (CBS)
Stephen Colbert’s Election Night 2020: Democracy’s Last Stand Building Back America Great Again Better 2020 (Showtime)
The Oscars (ABC)
Celebrating America — An Inauguration Night Special (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC and PBS)

*BEST TV MOVIE*

Projected Order of Finish
Sylvie’s Love (Amazon)
Uncle Frank (Amazon)
Oslo (HBO)
Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia (Lifetime)
Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square (Netflix) — podcast (Dolly Parton)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Allen vs. Farrow (HBO) — podcast (Kirby Dick & Amy Ziering)
Pretend It’s a City (Netflix) — podcast (Fran Lebowitz)
City So Real (NatGeo)
Secrets of the Whales (Disney+)
American Masters (PBS)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SPECIAL*

Projected Order of Finish
Framing Britney Spears (The New York Times Presents) (FX)
The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
The Bee Gees: How Can You Mend a Broken Heart (HBO)
Tina (HBO)
Boys State (Apple TV+)

*BEST HOSTED NONFICTION SERIES OR SPECIAL*

Projected Order of Finish
Oprah with Meghan and Harry: A CBS Primetime Special (CBS) — podcast (Oprah Winfrey)
My Next Guest Needs No Introduction with David Letterman (Netflix) — podcast (David Letterman)
Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy (CNN)
United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell (CNN)
Vice (Showtime)

*EXCEPTIONAL MERIT IN DOCUMENTARY FILMMAKING*

Projected Order of Finish
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
Dick Johnson Is Dead
(Netflix)
76 Days
(Pluto)

*BEST COMPETITION PROGRAM*

Projected Order of Finish
RuPaul’s Drag Race (VH1) — podcast (RuPaul)
The Amazing Race (CBS)
The Voice (NBC)
Nailed It! (Netflix)
Top Chef (Bravo)

*BEST STRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM*

Projected Order of Finish
Queer Eye (Netflix)
Shark Tank (ABC) — podcast (Mark Cuban)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (Nat Geo)
Property Brothers: Forever Home (HGTV)
Antiques Roadshow (PBS)

*BEST UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM*

Projected Order of Finish
Becoming (Disney+)
Selling Sunset (Netflix)
RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked (VH1) — podcast (RuPaul)
Indian Matchmaking (Netflix)
Below Deck (Bravo)

*BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Josh O’Connor (The Crown)
Billy Porter (Pose) — podcast
Jonathan Majors (Lovecraft Country)
Rege-Jean Page (Bridgerton)
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
Matthew Rhys (Perry Mason)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Mj Rodriguez (Pose)
Emma Corrin (The Crown)
Olivia Colman (The Crown) — podcast
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale) — podcast
Jurnee Smollett (Lovecraft Country)
Uzo Aduba (In Treatment)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Michael Kenneth Williams (Lovecraft Country)
Tobias Menzies (The Crown)
Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid’s Tale)
John Lithgow (Perry Mason)
Giancarlo Esposito (The Mandalorian) — podcast
Max Minghella (The Handmaid’s Tale)
O-T Fagbenle (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Chris Sullivan (This Is Us)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Gillian Anderson (The Crown)
Helena Bonham Carter (The Crown)
Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Ann Dowd (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Samira Wiley (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Aunjanue Ellis (Lovecraft Country) — podcast
Emerald Fennell (The Crown)
Madeline Brewer (The Handmaid’s Tale)

*BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Kenan Thompson (Kenan) — podcast
Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
William H. Macy (Shameless)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Jean Smart (Hacks)
Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)
Aidy Bryant (Shrill) — podcast
Tracee Ellis Ross (black-ish) — podcast
Allison Janney (Mom) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)
Paul Reiser (The Kominsky Method)
Carl Clemons-Hopkins (Hacks)
Jeremy Swift (Ted Lasso)
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Brendan Hunt (Ted Lasso)
Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
Rosie Perez (The Flight Attendant)
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live)
Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live)

*BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Order of Finish
Paul Bettany (WandaVision)
Hugh Grant (The Undoing) — podcast
Ewan McGregor (Halston)
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton) — podcast
Leslie Odom, Jr. (Hamilton) — podcast

*BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Order of Finish
Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown) — podcast
Elizabeth Olsen (WandaVision) — podcast
Anya Taylor-Joy (The Queen’s Gambit) — podcast
Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You)
Cynthia Erivo (Genius: Aretha)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Order of Finish
Evan Peters (Mare of Easttown)
Daveed Diggs (Hamilton)
Jonathan Groff (Hamilton)
Anthony Ramos (Hamilton)
Paapa Essiedu (I May Destroy You)
Thomas Brodie-Sangster (The Queen’s Gambit)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Order of Finish
Kathryn Hahn (WandaVision)
Jean Smart (Mare of Easttown)
Julianne Nicholson (Mare of Easttown)
Phillipa Soo (Hamilton)
Renee Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton)
Moses Ingram (The Queen’s Gambit)

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